Central Bank Policy Tracker
Central bank policy divergence is the #1 driver of long-term currency trends. We monitor 10 major central banks daily as Step 1 of our 5-step confluence method.
Current Policy Stances
Updated regularly — members get daily policy analysis via Discord
Federal Reserve (Fed)
USD
Current Rate
4.25-4.50%
Stance
Restrictive
European Central Bank (ECB)
EUR
Current Rate
2.75%
Stance
Easing
Bank of England (BoE)
GBP
Current Rate
4.50%
Stance
Restrictive
Bank of Japan (BoJ)
JPY
Current Rate
0.50%
Stance
Tightening
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
AUD
Current Rate
4.10%
Stance
Easing
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)
NZD
Current Rate
3.75%
Stance
Easing
Bank of Canada (BoC)
CAD
Current Rate
3.00%
Stance
Easing
Swiss National Bank (SNB)
CHF
Current Rate
0.50%
Stance
Neutral
Riksbank (Sweden)
SEK
Current Rate
2.25%
Stance
Easing
Norges Bank (Norway)
NOK
Current Rate
4.50%
Stance
Restrictive
2025-2026 Central Bank Meeting Calendar
Key dates when rate decisions move markets. Mark these on your calendar.
| Central Bank | Remaining 2025 Meeting Dates |
|---|---|
| Fed (FOMC) | Mar 19, May 7, Jun 18, Jul 30, Sep 17, Oct 29, Dec 17 |
| ECB | Apr 17, Jun 5, Jul 24, Sep 11, Oct 30, Dec 18 |
| BoE (MPC) | Mar 20, May 8, Jun 19, Aug 7, Sep 18, Nov 6, Dec 18 |
| BoJ | Mar 14, May 1, Jun 17, Jul 31, Sep 19, Oct 30, Dec 19 |
| RBA | Apr 1, May 20, Jul 8, Aug 12, Sep 30, Nov 4, Dec 9 |
| BoC | Mar 12, Apr 16, Jun 4, Jul 30, Sep 17, Oct 29, Dec 10 |
Members receive pre-meeting analysis and post-decision breakdowns for all meetings. See what banks predict before each meeting →
How to Trade Central Bank Decisions
Before
Prepare
- • Check bank consensus on expected outcome
- • Review COT positioning for pre-positioning
- • Identify key levels for entry if thesis confirmed
- • Reduce position size during the announcement
During
Watch Reaction
- • Was the decision expected or a surprise?
- • Read the statement language carefully
- • Watch forward guidance changes
- • Don't trade the initial spike — wait for the dust to settle
After
Confirm Trend
- • Did the decision change the divergence thesis?
- • Check retail positioning shift post-decision
- • Wait for price to settle (24-48 hours)
- • Enter with full 5-step confirmation
Key Policy Divergence Trade Themes
Current trade theses based on central bank policy divergence — Step 1 of our methodology.
Short EUR/USD
Divergence: Fed hawkish hold (4.50%) vs ECB cutting (2.75%)
2.00% rate differential favouring USD. Capital flows from low-yield EUR to high-yield USD. This is the strongest divergence on the board.
Long USD/CAD
Divergence: Fed hawkish (4.50%) vs BoC dovish (3.00%)
1.50% rate gap widening as BoC cuts aggressively. CAD weakness thesis supported by falling Canadian growth and commodity softness.
Long GBP/NZD
Divergence: BoE neutral (4.50%) vs RBNZ dovish (3.75%)
BoE maintaining restrictive policy while RBNZ accelerates cuts. NZD weakness thesis supported by slowing NZ economy.
These are directional themes, not trade signals. Confirm with bank research, COT data, and retail sentiment before trading.
How Policy Divergence Drives Currency Pairs
The Core Principle: Money flows to where it earns the highest return. When one central bank raises rates while another cuts, capital flows create sustained directional moves in that currency pair.
STRONG DIVERGENCE
Fed holds at 4.50% while ECB cuts to 2.75% → USD strength vs EUR → Short EUR/USD thesis
WEAK DIVERGENCE
BoE and ECB both easing → GBP/EUR range-bound → No clear directional trade
Hawkish vs Dovish Explained
Hawkish 🦅
- Favours higher interest rates
- Focused on controlling inflation
- Generally strengthens the currency
- Attracts foreign capital inflows
Dovish 🕊️
- Favours lower interest rates
- Focused on stimulating growth
- Generally weakens the currency
- Capital flows to higher-yield alternatives
Central Bank Terms Glossary
Essential terminology for understanding central bank policy and its impact on forex. See more terms in our full trading glossary.
Quantitative Easing (QE)
When a central bank buys government bonds to inject money into the economy. Increases money supply, typically weakens the currency. Also called 'money printing.'
Quantitative Tightening (QT)
The reverse of QE—central bank reduces its bond holdings, shrinking money supply. Typically strengthens the currency by making it scarcer.
Forward Guidance
Central bank communication about future policy intentions. Markets move on forward guidance even before actual rate changes. 'Hawkish forward guidance' = expect rate hikes.
Dot Plot
A chart showing where each Fed official expects interest rates to be in future years. Used by markets to price in the path of U.S. monetary policy.
Terminal Rate
The peak interest rate in a hiking cycle, or the floor rate in a cutting cycle. Markets constantly reprice the terminal rate based on economic data.
Neutral Rate (R*)
The theoretical interest rate that neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth. Central banks try to move rates toward neutral over time.
Key Takeaways
- Central bank policy divergence is the #1 driver of long-term currency trends. This is Step 1 of our methodology for a reason.
- Focus on DIVERGENCE, not individual rates. A 4.50% rate means nothing on its own—it matters relative to the other currency in the pair.
- Forward guidance moves markets more than actual rate decisions. Central banks signal before they act.
- Never trade central bank announcements in real-time. Wait 24-48 hours for the dust to settle, then confirm with Steps 2-5.
- Upcoming meeting dates are your trading calendar. Prepare positions before meetings, don't chase after.
Frequently Asked Questions
Get Daily Central Bank Policy Updates
Never miss a policy shift. Get daily macro analysis with trade implications delivered to your Discord.
7 days free, then £4.99/mo • Cancel anytime
Key Takeaways
- →Central bank policy divergence is the #1 driver of long-term currency trends.
- →Trade the GAP between two central banks' policies — when one is hawkish and the other dovish.
- →Forward guidance moves markets more than actual rate decisions — learn to read between the lines.
- →Central bank analysis is Step 1 of our 5-step confluence method — the macro foundation.