USD/PHP Rises 15 Centavos to P62.735 on Hawkish Fed and High Oil

Key Takeaways

• The Philippine peso weakened 15 centavos against the greenback to close at P62.735 on Thursday, September 24, 2026, giving up gains from its previous two-week high.
• Robust US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data and a weak 5-year Treasury auction pushed 5-year US yields above 5% for the first time since 2007, driving the Dollar Index to 101.08.
• Multi-agency growth downgrades from S&P Global Ratings (cut to 2.9%) and the Asian Development Bank (cut to 3.3%) exacerbated pressure on Philippine domestic markets.
• Foreign exchange trading volume on the BAP platform contracted significantly to $1.145 billion, down from $1.636 billion in the prior trading session.

On Thursday, September 24, 2026, the Philippine peso weakened by 15 centavos against the US dollar to close at P62.735, reversing the prior session's push to a two-week high of P62.585. Our analysis desk at PropFirmScan tracked an opening print of P62.70—which stood as the peso's best level of the day—before persistent greenback demand dragged the pair to an intraday low of P62.795. Total trading volume contracted to $1.145 billion compared to $1.636 billion recorded on Wednesday. The move was fueled by a double-barreled repricing: aggressive expectations of monetary tightening from the US Federal Reserve alongside sustained energy cost pressures.

Federal Reserve Hawkish Bets Drive Global Treasury Yields

The primary driver behind the greenback's renewed strength was a stronger-than-expected US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) release, which reignited underlying inflation concerns across global fixed-income markets. These worries were amplified by a poorly received auction of 5-year US Treasury notes, which triggered a broad sell-off across the yield curve and sent the 5-year US yield above 5% for the first time since 2007.

Remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr reinforced market expectations that the central bank will likely deliver further monetary tightening, prompting traders to price in higher odds of a second consecutive policy rate hike next month. This dynamic created sharp capital flows toward dollar-denominated assets, pushing the Dollar Index (DXY) to a two-month high of 101.08.

For funded accounts tracking global fixed income, understanding central bank policy divergence in institutional flows is vital when navigating rate-driven market shifts. Unplanned yield spikes rapidly alter risk appetite across major currency pairs and emerging market instruments alike.

Domestic Growth Cuts and Crude Oil Pressures

Beyond external rate dynamics, the peso faced acute pressure from rising crude oil prices caused by renewed geopolitics in the Middle East. As a net energy importer, higher global crude prices deteriorate the Philippine trade balance and stoke import inflation.

Compounding these headwinds were official economic growth projection cuts by major international institutions:

• S&P Global Ratings reduced its 2026 Philippine GDP growth forecast to 2.9%, down substantially from its earlier 4.1% estimate.
• Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered its growth outlook for the country to 3.3%, down from the 3.8% projection published in July.

These revisions follow official second-quarter GDP figures showing 2.3% expansion—the slowest pace of growth since the pandemic—bringing first-half growth to 2.6%. This trails well below the government Development Budget Coordination Committee target of 3.5% to 4.5% for the year. Traders reviewing macroeconomic setups can consult our guide on Economic Calendar for Traders: How to Use It to effectively plan position sizing ahead of growth and yield events.

Dollar Dominance Across Major Currency Crosses

The greenback’s advance extended far past Asian emerging markets. Rising Treasury yields pressured major developed market currencies, pinning the euro near a two-month low of $1.1384 and leaving sterling languishing near a three-month low of $1.324.

When trading major vs. exotic dollar pairs, review our selection of Forex Pairs Best for Prop Trading to balance spread costs against liquidity during high-impact US macro announcements. Active day trading strategies require rigorous risk limits when broad-based dollar moves gather structural momentum.

Market Impact Snapshot

Prop Firm Trading Rules and Risk Strategy

Near-term price projections point toward a USD/PHP range of P62.55 to P62.85 or P62.60 to P62.80 in upcoming sessions. When trading high-volatility environments driven by yield spikes, prop firm traders must remain strictly compliant with risk parameters.

Extreme intraday slippage around economic releases can easily trigger a breach of your Max Daily Drawdown. To protect your evaluation phase, review news event trading policies across prop firms and check challenge success rate benchmarks to understand how sudden market volatility affects overall pass rates.

If you are currently evaluating evaluation conditions or withdrawal terms across platforms, use our head-to-head prop firm comparison tool and inspect real-time payout timelines via the payout speed tracker to ensure your account management strategies align with your operational goals.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did the Philippine peso weaken against the US dollar

The peso weakened due to a combination of strong US economic data that boosted Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, rising global oil prices from Middle East tensions, and lowered Philippine GDP growth forecasts from S&P Global Ratings and the ADB.

How high did US Treasury yields move during this session

The 5-year US Treasury yield crossed above 5% for the first time since 2007 following a weak note auction and stronger-than-expected PMI data. This surge in bond yields supported broad strength in the US dollar index.

What are the updated GDP growth targets for the Philippine economy

S&P Global Ratings downgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 2.9% from 4.1%, while the ADB lowered its estimate to 3.3% from 3.8%. These sit below the official government target range of 3.5% to 4.5%.

What trading range is expected for USD/PHP in the near term

Market forecasts project the USD/PHP pair to trade within a range of P62.55 to P62.85, with conservative estimates placing the immediate band between P62.60 and P62.80.