Written and reviewed by Kevin Nerway · Last verified 25 October 2026
Key Takeaways
- Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.6% within the first four hours of Monday trading, reversing an initial gap lower following heavy selling in technology stocks.
- Negative AI infrastructure headlines-including valuation pushback on Nscale's $30 billion IPO-failed to depress prices, signaling strong underlying buyer appetite.
- Historical analysis of Monday opens since 2013 shows that opening gains exceeding 1% extended further over the remainder of the session in 87.5% of instances.
- While directional tendency remains bullish, opening gains of 0.5% to 1% see mid-session retracements over half the time, requiring careful trade management around account loss limits.
I am Kevin Nerway, founder and lead analyst at PropFirmScan. On Monday, October 19, 2026, Nasdaq 100 futures staged a notable 1.6% rally during the first four hours of Asian trade, recovering sharply from an initial gap down after last week's technology equity sell-off.
What makes this price action noteworthy is not merely the size of the move, but what the market chose to ignore. The initial bid emerged despite a series of negative headlines concerning artificial intelligence infrastructure projects. Our team tracked the institutional order flow through this session, and the aggressive absorption of morning selling suggests short sellers may be forced to cover as the US cash session approaches.
AI Headwinds Fail to Stop Bullish Momentum
The strong response from buyers came right alongside news of friction in AI build-outs. Nvidia-backed data center developer Nscale has encountered resistance regarding its proposed $30 billion IPO valuation. This follows another Nvidia-backed developer, Firmus, abandoning its planned Australian listing earlier this month. Additionally, Microsoft withdrew from an Nscale UK data center initiative due to power grid connection delays.
Under typical conditions, a cluster of negative headlines across AI valuation and infrastructure would press tech valuations lower. Instead, futures shrugged off the reports entirely. When asset prices advance on negative news, it demonstrates that buyers are willing to absorb supply. For funded traders conducting fundamental analysis, evaluating how price responds to headlines provides a direct window into institutional sentiment.
What Historical Monday Openings Tell Us
To determine whether chasing or fading early Monday strength makes statistical sense, our desk analyzed Nasdaq 100 futures data across 646 Monday sessions dating back to 2013. We evaluated performance during the opening four hours against the remainder of the trading day.
The empirical record suggests that fading strong Monday opening moves has rarely proven effective:
- Opening gains of 0.5% to 1.0%: In 78% of historical instances, futures recorded further gains later in the session. However, more than half of these sessions saw the initial advance fully retraced at some point during the day before closing green. Crucially, only 9.8% of these sessions finished below the Sunday evening opening price.
- Opening gains exceeding 1.0%: Today's 1.6% surge falls into this strong momentum bucket. Historically, 87.5% of sessions featuring an opening jump above 1% continued to build on those gains into the close.
While historical performance does not guarantee future results, combining statistical context with institutional order flow data gives discretionary traders an edge when planning session entries.
Risk Management for Funded Accounts
For traders holding evaluation or active capital, trading strong Monday opens presents specific operational challenges. Because over 50% of moderate Monday opening rallies experience mid-day pullbacks before continuing higher, entering on momentum without accounting for intra-session swings can trigger trailing drawdowns.
If you are executing intraday momentum tactics on tech futures, review your firm's challenge rule differences regarding maximum permitted slippage and intraday loss caps. Sudden mid-session pullbacks can breach a strict max daily drawdown threshold even if the overall daily candle finishes positive.
To maintain risk control while participating in high-volatility moves, traders should balance account parameters by reviewing challenge difficulty rankings across major evaluation programs. Keeping position sizes calibrated to intraday volatility ensures accounts survive normal session pullbacks.
Market Impact Snapshot
| Asset | Direction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ) | Bullish | High |
| S&P 500 Futures (ES) | Bullish | Medium |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | Bearish | Medium |
| Mega-Cap Tech Stocks | Bullish | High |
What To Watch Next
As the London and New York sessions open, traders should monitor whether futures maintain price acceptance above the Asian session highs. A failure to hold early gains during the US cash market open would indicate that larger liquidity providers are using the Asia bounce to distribute inventory.
Key factors to track over the next 24 hours:
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Nasdaq futures rise despite negative AI news
Market participants absorbed negative headlines regarding Nscale IPO valuations and data center power delays, focusing instead on buying the dip after previous tech selling. When bad news fails to push prices lower, it signals strong underlying buyer demand.
How often do Nasdaq futures extend Monday opening rallies
Historical data across 646 Mondays since 2013 shows that opening gains above 1% extended further over the session 87.5% of the time. Opening gains between 0.5% and 1% saw additional upside in 78% of instances.
Is it safe to buy early Monday breakout moves on funded accounts
While the historical bias favors continuation, more than 50% of moderate Monday rallies experience complete intraday pullbacks before resuming higher. Traders must account for intraday drawdowns to avoid violating daily account loss limits during mid-session dips.
How does this tech rally impact short sellers
The 1.6% Asian session surge puts bears on notice, as short positions entered during last week's sell-off face squeeze pressure. If futures hold gains into the New York open, systematic short covering could propel indices further.