Written and reviewed by Kevin Nerway · Last verified 3 November 2026
Key Takeaways
- Gold spot fell 1.07% while WTI Crude Oil rose 1.45% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as traders navigated US congressional midterm elections and geopolitical headlines.
- The US Dollar Index held a narrow consolidation range, supported by a 55.5 ISM manufacturing print and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary counterbalancing safe-haven shifts.
- Rate hike probabilities for December settled at 73% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled patience alongside artificial intelligence capital expenditure concerns.
- Risk management remains paramount across funded accounts ahead of afternoon JOLTS data, Wednesday's ISM services release, and Friday's non-farm labor report.
Midterm Elections Drive Foreign Exchange and Commodity Divergence
On Tuesday, November 3, 2026, Gold spot slipped 1.07% while WTI Crude Oil spot advanced 1.45% as markets evaluated the US congressional midterm elections. In currency markets, USD/JPY advanced 0.23% to lead dollar gains, while AUD/USD fell 0.34%, EUR/USD ticked down 0.03%, and GBP/USD gained 0.01%.
Prediction market pricing heavily points toward a Democratic victory in the House of Representatives, alongside a 70% implied probability of Senate control. A unified Democratic Congress raises prospective debates over the federal debt ceiling, potential legislative gridlock, and increased oversight on artificial intelligence technology. Conversely, a Republican sweep across both houses would likely push Treasury yields higher and reinvigorate dollar strength across major pairs.
Federal Reserve Policy Signals and Economic Expansion
The greenback found support early in the session following economic metrics that highlighted steady domestic expansion. The ISM manufacturing index printed at 55.5, marking its tenth consecutive month above the expansion threshold. Additional backing came from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who advocated for at least two additional rate hikes to curb sticky inflationary pressures.
These hawkish comments offset earlier dovish repricing driven by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's patient policy stance and slowing corporate capital expenditure in artificial intelligence. Consequently, money market pricing for a December Fed rate increase eased from 80% down to approximately 73%.
Geopolitical Friction and Middle East Energy Drivers
Geopolitical risk headlines introduced intraday volatility across commodities. Overnight reports of limited US strikes targeting Qeshm Island fueled safe-haven bidding into energy products, driving Brent spot up 1.29% and WTI spot higher by 1.45%.
However, emerging diplomatic channels in the Middle East capped broader flight-to-safety flows, preventing a sustained breakout in precious metals. For commodity