Written and reviewed by Kevin Nerway · Last verified 17 September 2026
Key Takeaways
- The Federal Reserve increased the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026, marking its first rate hike since 2023.
- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that a second 25-basis-point interest rate increase is anticipated before the end of 2026, driven by persistent inflation concerns.
- Long-term economic projections from the committee plot a return to rate reductions starting in 2028, targeting a terminal band of 3.50%–3.75% by 2029.
- The policy decision directly defied public pressure from the executive branch, asserting institutional independence despite mounting political friction.
Fed Delivers First Rate Hike Since 2023
On September 16, 2026, at 18:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh announced a 25-basis-point interest rate hike, elevating the federal funds rate target to 3.75%–4.00%. Our desk at PropFirmScan tracked the announcement as swap markets had priced in a greater than 90% probability of this move ahead of the decision. This decision marks the central bank’s first tightening action in three years, breaking a prolonged hold period maintained since January 2026.
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