Geopolitics

    Fed Expected to Hike Rates Above 3.6% Defying Trump Pressure

    1 min read
    185 words
    Updated Sep 15, 2026

    Futures pricing now indicates a 90% probability that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will increase the benchmark interest rate from its current 3.6% level on Wednesday. Driven by escalating energy prices from the Iran war, this marks the central bank's first rate increase in three years despite heavy criticism from President Donald Trump.

    Written and reviewed by Kevin Nerway · Last verified 15 September 2026

    Key Takeaways

    • Hawkish Shift: Interest rate futures now price in a 90% probability that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will lead a rate hike on Wednesday, pushing the benchmark rate above its current 3.6% level.
    • Supply-Side Inflation: Rekindled conflict in Iran has triggered severe spikes in oil and natural gas prices, compounding inflation pressures already boosted by massive capital spending on AI data centers.
    • Political Clash: The anticipated hike comes just seven weeks before US midterm elections, directly defying public demands from President Donald Trump for lower interest rates.
    • Policy Reversal: This move marks the Fed's first rate increase in three years, completely reversing guidance from March 2026 that pointed toward interest rate reductions.

    On September 15, 2026, financial markets enter one of the most volatile central bank decision weeks of the year. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is widely expected to break a three-year pause and raise the benchmark rate from its current level of approximately 3.6%. Futures pricing shifted sharply following Friday's hot inflation report, driving the implied probability of a Wednesday hike to 90%. At PropFirmScan, our analysis desk has been tracking

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