10-Year Treasury Yields Hit 4.98% as Bond Selloff Deepens

Key Takeaways

• The US 10-year Treasury yield spiked to an intraday high of 4.98% on Friday, within 1 basis point of its 19-year high set in October 2023, finishing the week up 18 basis points.
• Swaps and interest rate futures repriced aggressive central bank action, ending Friday pricing in 2.0 rate hikes by year-end, up sharply from 1.35 hikes priced at Monday's close.
• The Japanese yen rallied 1.7% over the weekly session, triggering rapid unwinds across cross-currency carry trades as yield differentials adjusted violently.
• Soaring commodity prices, driven by crude oil holding above $100 per barrel, combined with record US debt expansion (total securities reaching 588% of GDP) to create severe cross-asset turbulence.

Repricing Interest Rates and the Treasury Bond Selloff

I'm Kevin Nerway, founder and lead analyst at PropFirmScan, and our desk tracked an extraordinary shift across global fixed income markets this week. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged to an intraday peak of 4.98% on Friday—falling just 1 basis point short of the 19-year high recorded on October 19, 2023—before settling the week 18 basis points higher. This was not a subtle drift; it was a violent repricing that fundamentally reshaped short-term expectations for central bank policy.

At Monday's close, rate markets were discounting 1.35 rate hikes by the end of the year. By Friday afternoon, traders had priced in a full 2.0 rate hikes. This sharp hawkish recalibration forced automated algorithms and institutional portfolios to shed government debt rapidly, driving sovereign yields higher globally. When fixed income yields spike at this speed, the discount rate applied to risk assets shoots up immediately, creating acute volatility across equities, foreign exchange, and commodities. Traders analyzing smart money reaction to rate market repricing will note that institutional desks rapidly reduced leverage to protect balance sheets against further yield expansion.

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